A swine flu pandemic

A pandemic is a situation where a disease spreads over a wide geographic area and affects an unusually large number of people. The number of people across the globe pronounced as infected with the Type A H1N1 swine flu virus is sufficiently high toda across the globe that the World Health Organization, the health department of the United Nations, is forced to raise its pandemic alert for swine influenza to Phase 5, only a step short of the top alert condition at Phase 6. This Phase measure is an indicator that demonstrates recognition of the fact that the virus is able to circulate evenly among the human population and that there is nothing tangible left that keeps a disease reaching pandemic proportions. This level of alert prompts governments across the world to deploy measures aimed at arresting the spread of the disease by issuing directions on trade and travel restrictions.

The World Health Organization recognizes today that the swine flu spread has made noticeable advances towards becoming a pandemic even if final evidence of having a pandemic is not yet apparent. The WHO has estimated now at international conferences that it is not to be considered inevitable that the world should have a full-blown pandemic. The influenza virus is noted for its ability to mutate very quickly; this quality makes it quite difficult to predict whether the virus will become more virulent or less.

According to a WHO release, the swine flu virus is now in evidence as having spread so far and wide that it can no longer be feasibly bottled up in a region. The best hope now is to have governments work to administer cures or palliatives. The US for example, is already acting swiftly to warn the public that the swine flu outbreak is to be considered a public health emergency.

Here is a quick run-through of the various alert Phases that the WHO uses to describe a disease outbreak:

Phase 1: There is no evidence that swine flu viruses are seen to infect humans.

Phase 2: At least one case is known where swine flu seems to have crossed over to humans.

Phase 3: There are several known cases of swine flu attacks on humans, but they are all cases of direct transfer from animal to humans, and not any transfer from humans to humans.

Phase 4: The swine flu virus has adapted well enough to no longer need to come from an animal to infect a human; it can now directly move from human to human. There is full recognition of the potential for a pandemic at this point, though it is not considered inevitable.

Phase 5: At least two countries in any single WHO region are seening the swine flu virus spread from one person directly to another. A pandemic is considered almost unavoidable at this stage and governments focus on addressing the disease in their own countries.

Phase 6: This signals a full-blown pandemic. More than two countries in any one WHO region are seeing inections and it signals that the swine flu pandemic is now crossing continents.

Linus Orakles

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